Lead & Lag Measures in Football | #02

Your Club's KPIs Aren’t Improving? Here’s Why.

Most football clubs measure success by wins, revenue, and attendance. But these metrics, known as lag measures, only show results after the fact. You celebrate when they're good, scratch your head when they're not—but ultimately, you can't directly control them.

To reliably improve these outcomes, you need a different approach: measuring and managing the lead measures, or the specific actions you can directly influence that drive results. This is the core principle of the 4 Disciplines of Execution (4DX)—a proven framework developed by Chris McChesney, Jim Huling, and Sean Covey—that can transform how your club operates.

My "Aha" Moment: The Day 4DX Changed My Mindset

A few years ago, I picked up a copy of "The 4 Disciplines of Execution." One insight instantly clicked: teams often fail because they obsess over results they can't directly influence, instead of managing the behaviors and actions that create those results. The authors clearly articulated a distinction that I missed until then: the difference between lead and lag measures.

Lag measures are outcomes, the end results of your efforts—such as match victories, attendance figures, or sponsorship revenues. They are important indicators of success, but you can't directly manage them.

Lead measures, on the other hand, are directly controllable inputs—the actions you take daily, weekly, and monthly to influence outcomes. They predictably impact your lag measures.

From that day forward, I incorporated this learning in litereally every project I managed. Without clearly defined lead measures, projects felt unpredictable. With them, the path to success became clear, measurable, and practical.

Understanding Lead and Lag Measures

To fully grasp the concept, consider fitness as a simple example. Your ultimate goal (lag measure) might be losing 5 kilograms. You can't directly control your weight each day, but you can control how often you exercise or what you eat (lead measures). By consistently managing these lead measures—exercising three times per week and maintaining a balanced diet—you significantly increase the likelihood of achieving your desired outcome.

In football, the principle is the same. You can't control match results directly, but you can control training methods, player recovery strategies, fan engagement campaigns, and commercial initiatives—all powerful lead measures that contribute to desired outcomes.

The Four Disciplines of Execution (4DX)—Beyond Lead and Lag Measures

While lead and lag measures form the core of the second discipline within the 4DX framework, there are three additional disciplines that collectively make it effective:

1. Focus on the Wildly Important Goals (WIGs): Clearly define one or two critical goals that must be achieved above all else. Clubs often dilute their effectiveness by pursuing too many initiatives simultaneously.
2. Act on Lead Measures: Identify, track, and rigorously manage actions that directly influence these goals—this is where your club leverages lead measures effectively.
3. Keep a Compelling Scoreboard: Create simple, visible, and continuously updated scoreboards to monitor progress toward lead and lag measures. Visibility drives accountability and motivates action.
4. Create a Cadence of Accountability: Regularly meet to review progress, make adjustments, and ensure everyone remains focused and accountable for achieving the lead measures.

Together, these disciplines enable clubs to execute consistently and predictably, turning strategic goals into tangible outcomes.

Where Football Gets Measurement Wrong

Football, both on and off the pitch, loves lag measures:

• "We need to win more games."
• "Let's increase revenue by 15%."
• "Boost stadium attendance."

These desirable outcomes often become vague ambitions rather than clear goals supported by actionable plans. Clubs struggle when results stagnate because they haven't identified or tracked the lead measures essential for improvement.

Effective clubs, however, meticulously define and manage lead measures:

• How often do we practice attacking patterns?
• How many targeted fan communications are we sending per month?
• Are we tracking injury-prevention routines for key players daily?

Lag measures look impressive in boardroom presentations but don't guide your daily activities. Lead measures provide clear, actionable steps that directly contribute to achieving your strategic outcomes.

Lead Measures in Action – Football Examples

Consider set-piece effectiveness:

• Lag measure: Score 10 goals from set pieces this season.
• Lead measure: Practice set-piece situations at least 30 minutes every training session.

Or stadium attendance:

• Lag measure: Achieve 90% stadium attendance.
• Lead measures:
  • Send weekly segmented emails with personalized offers.
  • Host monthly fan engagement events to foster community.
  • Conduct quarterly satisfaction surveys, promptly addressing concerns.

Focusing on these controllable activities dramatically increases predictability and effectiveness.

The Power of Specificity

Execution thrives on specificity. Many clubs set vague lag measures ("Win more matches"). More precise lag measures provide clear direction—such as "Maintain 60% possession per game." Clearly defined lead measures then become: daily possession drills, precision passing routines, and tactical strategy sessions.

Ensuring player availability is another clear example:

• Lag measure: Star players available for 95% of matches.
• Lead measures:
  • Daily injury-prevention exercises.
  • Weekly performance screening sessions.
  • Tailored recovery protocols post-match.

Specific lead measures remove ambiguity and clarify daily actions.

Implementing Lead and Lag Measures: A Practical Roadmap

Here’s a straightforward guide your club can implement immediately:

1. Clearly define your lag measures: Specify outcomes you ultimately want to achieve.
2. Brainstorm actionable lead measures: List behaviors and actions directly influencing these outcomes.
3. Prioritize and track diligently: Choose a few impactful lead measures to track consistently.
4. Review and refine regularly: Use data to adjust and optimize your lead measures continuously.

Real-World Example: Increasing Attendance Predictably

Imagine your club wants to achieve 90% stadium attendance. You could define lead measures as follows:

• 5 personalized outreach emails per month to targeted fan segments.
• 2 fan-centric events each month.
• Weekly monitoring of email open rates and response rates, refining messaging accordingly. It's worth noting that even open rates, while helpful, are themselves lag measures. To further optimize, you might define additional lead measures such as A/B-testing 5 email subject lines, segmenting audiences more precisely, or scheduling sends at optimal times.

Tracking these lead measures consistently creates predictability, driving real attendance growth.

What's your take?

I'd love to hear your thoughts or experiences. Have you successfully implemented lead measures at your club, or are you facing challenges getting started? Drop me a message and let's geek about how clubs can move from vague ambitions to clear, actionable strategies.

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